US-China Trade Truce Will Transform Maritime Logistics as Tariff Tensions Ease

US-China Port Fee Suspension Offers Maritime Relief

On November 1, 2025, the United States and China reached an historic trade agreement, suspending retaliatory port fees for one year starting November 10. China announced in mid-October port fees targeted against vessels flagged and partially owned by Americans calling Chinese ports, mirroring US penalties against Chinese vessels that started October 14. This suspension marks an historic moment in international relations between these two powers.

Port fees were expected to have an outsized effect on larger vessels, especially those operating in the crude oil sector. The agreement signifies a significant easing in maritime trade tensions which had led carriers to enforce capacity discipline and carefully manage vessel availability for supporting elevated rates across major trade lanes.

Tariff Uncertainty Drives Cargo Advancement and Volume Shifts

Trade tensions between the US and China had an adverse impact on North American ocean exports during October and November 2025, leading to early shipment of cargo due to uncertainty regarding potential tariff increases on Chinese goods by shippers - leading to temporary demand spikes across Trans-Pacific routes.

US import volumes are projected to decline 19.7% and 20.1% from November and December respectively, to total 24.7 million 20-foot equivalent units for 2018. Export volumes gradually rose towards late November as shippers prepared post-holiday retail replenishment. Indian textile exporters experienced disruption from US tariffs; textile exports declined nearly 10% year-over-year following the implementation of 50% US tariffs on Indian products in September.

Carrier Capacity Management Sustains Increased Rates

Following China's Golden Week holiday, carriers gradually reinstated Trans-Pacific capacity while carefully managing vessel availability to match demand and support higher rates. A mid-October rate increase was followed by another hike on November 1 across major routes - USWC rates held steady while IPI and RIPI saw fluctuation as market dynamics adjusted; USEC saw more varied implementation depending on market needs.

Spot rates began rising again in late October as carriers employed capacity discipline to prevent oversupply that could push prices lower. A round of rate increases began taking effect on November 1, although their sustainability remained uncertain due to new vessel deliveries expected before year's end. Trans-Pacific Eastbound rates to Canada also began climbing after mid-October; further reinforced by a General Rate Increase implemented November 1.

Suez Canal Traffic Hits 2025 Lows

Container ship transits through the Suez Canal approached their lowest levels since 2025 in late November, reflecting ongoing diversion via the Cape of Good Hope as carriers continued avoiding Red Sea disruptions. The final week in November witnessed second-lowest boxship transits through this waterway throughout 2018.

Middle East Route Expands Amid Delays

Ocean Network Express expanded their service options for South Asia, Middle East, and Africa in November 2025 with Jebel Ali service offered through Ocean Network Express. Rates remained elevated while transshipment delays are likely to persist as carriers maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions. Space availability to India remained adequate but may have been affected by blank sailings while capacity in Pakistan and Bangladesh remained tight through year end with most carriers serving these two nations via transshipment services.

India-US Trade Negotiations Signal Tariff Relief

India and the United States reportedly appear close to negotiating a trade agreement that will lower tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to around 15-16%, as part of discussions India could scale back imports of Russian oil while increasing its quota for non-genetically modified corn above its current 0.5 million tons per year quota. Such an accord would provide significant relief for labor-intensive sectors including textiles, gems, and jewelry exporters from India.