Hapag-Lloyd Narrows 2025 Earnings Forecast Amid Market Volatility and Gemini Cooperation Progress

Q3 Financial Performance and Earnings Revision

Hapag-Lloyd posted a significant 50% drop in nine-month net profit to EUR 846 million ($986.6 million) in November 2025, reflecting challenging market conditions across the container shipping sector. The company achieved a Group EBITDA of USD 2.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with Group EBIT declining 55% year-on-year to EUR 809 million. In response to persistent market volatility, Hapag-Lloyd narrowed its full-year EBIT forecast to between EUR 0.5 billion and EUR 1.0 billion, reducing the upper end from a previous range announced in August.

CEO Rolf Habben Jansen attributed the challenging results to a highly volatile market environment driven by geopolitical developments and trade policy uncertainties. The company noted that while the third quarter showed earnings improvements compared to the second quarter, results remained significantly below prior-year levels due to depressed freight rates and upward cost pressures. Security concerns in the Red Sea and frequent shifts in U.S. trade policy have contributed to unstable demand patterns across the shipping sector.

Volume Growth Offset by Rate Pressure

Despite profitability challenges, Hapag-Lloyd demonstrated resilience through strong operational performance. The Liner Shipping segment achieved a 9% increase in transport volumes to 10.2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in the nine-month period, primarily driven by growth on East-West trades. Liner Shipping revenue increased to $15.7 billion, reflecting robust customer demand and market share gains.

However, average freight rates declined 4.8% to $1,397 per TEU compared to the prior-year period, significantly impacting profitability despite the volume gains. The company faced additional headwinds from network transition and start-up costs associated with the Gemini cooperation, as well as congestion-related expenses in various global ports. The Terminal & Infrastructure segment generated $375 million in revenue, boosted by the acquisition of a terminal in France, though EBITDA and EBIT remained slightly below prior-year levels.

Gemini Cooperation Delivering Early Cost Benefits

Hapag-Lloyd reported seeing first cost advantages from the Gemini cooperation launched with rival Maersk in February 2025, with the company committing to deliver planned savings in full during 2026. The strategic alliance, which introduced a Cape of Good Hope network in response to Red Sea security concerns, is beginning to yield operational efficiencies despite earlier significant investments. Management emphasized that the company will respond agilely to changes in global trade while maintaining strict cost discipline moving forward.

Sustainability Investments and 2026 Outlook

As part of its decarbonization strategy, Hapag-Lloyd announced plans to invest in up to 22 new ships with capacities of less than 5,000 TEU, representing a mix of long-term charters and owned vessels. This initiative marks a significant milestone on the company's path toward enhanced efficiency and net-zero fleet operations by 2045. The company remains cautious about 2025 full-year performance, with the revised Group EBITDA forecast set between $3.1 billion and $3.6 billion, subject to considerable uncertainty from geopolitical challenges and volatile freight rates.