Red Sea Shipping Remains Uncertain as Gemini Alliance Delays Suez Return Despite Ceasefire Progress

Gemini Alliance Maintains Red Sea Caution Amid Ceasefire Signals

Container carriers Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd issued a joint statement on November 26, 2025, reiterating that their Gemini alliance will continue avoiding Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, and Suez Canal regions due to ongoing security concerns. Although accepting that Suez remains the fastest and most efficient route between Asia and Europe transport, no specific plans exist at present to change to sailing through Red Sea routes instead.

This statement directly addressed media speculation surrounding Gemini sailings through the Suez Canal, with both companies clarifying there is no confirmed schedule to reinstate East-West transits via this waterway. Crew, vessel, and cargo safety remain their top priority and they will monitor any developments from Gaza ceasefire before making changes to their routing decisions.

The announcement follows Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc's visit to the Suez Canal Authority, during which the authority stated that Maersk-affiliated vessels would commence returning to transit the waterway as of early December 2025 as a precursor to full-capacity return. The authority and carrier signed a strategic partnership agreement during the visit, described as a crucial step toward resuming transit through the Suez Canal.

Filipino Seafarers from Sunken Bulker Are Set for Release

Nine Filipino crew members of the M/V Eternity C are set to be released after spending five months in Houthi captivity, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs announced on December 2, 2025. The seafarers, held hostage in the Red Sea following the vessel's attack in July 2025, will be transferred from Sana'a, Yemen, to Muscat, Oman, for repatriation.

The Greek-managed, Liberia-flagged bulker was attacked by Yemen's Houthis in the southern Red Sea in July 2025. The militant group subsequently released a six-minute video claiming to show a nighttime rescue operation, though maritime security experts characterized the footage as heavily scripted propaganda. The U.S. Embassy in Yemen had previously condemned the Houthi group for kidnapping surviving crew members after the attack, calling for their immediate and unconditional safe release.

Shipping Market Is Prone to Disruption Due to Capacity Surge

Industry analysts warn of the potentially catastrophic repercussions of container ships returning to the Red Sea following ceasefire announcements, such as returning at large numbers could result in freight rates dropping globally. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst for Xeneta noted that conflict in the Red Sea remains one of the greatest obstacles to ocean container shipping - any meaningful return would have far reaching ramifications on the market.

Sand warned that container ships returning to the Red Sea would flood the market with capacity, leading to inevitable rate collapses. Unfortunately, however, major carriers remain cautious despite diplomatic progress and partnership agreements with Suez Canal Authority.